以下为此文英文原文:Mounting trade conflict threatens world economy, OECD warns
By Chris Giles in London
Tit-for-tat tariffs between the US and its partners are already damaging the global economy and pose a greater threat next year as trade slows down, the OECD said on Thursday.
In its interim economic outlook, issued days after Washington and Beijing announced some of the most sweeping tariffs for decades, the Paris-based international organisation said that to date the effect of the trade tensions had been “mild”.
But it added that the tariffs risked becoming more detrimental to global growth, which the OECD said had now “plateaued”.
Laurence Boone, the OECD’s chief economist, said: “Look at goods trade growth, it is now slower than [gross domestic product growth]. Export order books have been coming down pretty much across the board.”
The forecasts expect the world economy to grow 3.7 per cent this year and next, a healthy rate compared with the early years of this decade. But the OECD has cut its growth expectation from its May forecasts by 0.1 percentage point in 2018 and 0.2 percentage points in 2019.
Most countries’ economic forecasts have been marked down, the OECD said, partly as a result of weakness in the first quarter of this year and partly because of the expected impact of the trade conflicts and tightening financial markets.
The OECD noted the Trump administration’s threat to slap 25 per cent tariffs on $200bn of Chinese imports in January, adding that if such duties were imposed on cars, it could raise inflation by 1 per cent.
It said that US tariffs in January had already led to a 20 per cent increase in the US price of washing machines between March and July. It also noted that US car exports to China were down 40 per cent in the year to July.
Ms Boone added that the trade dispute had a chilling effect on corporate investment. “If we look at the UK since the Brexit decision, investment has stalled,” she said. “This is a good example of how damaging trade disputes can be.”
The OECD’s forecast for UK growth was downgraded by 0.1 percentage point both this year and next, leaving the projections showing a sluggish 1.3 per cent growth rate this year and 1.2 in 2019.
It added that the most burning issue in Europe was to avoid a damaging stand-off on the UK’s departure from the EU. “Brexit is a major source of uncertainty and it is vital that a deal is struck and the future relationship [between the UK and the EU] remains as close as possible,” the OECD said.
Emerging markets difficulties appeared confined to countries with high levels of dollar-denominated debt and large current account deficits. But the OECD said all emerging economies needed to be vigilant as financial conditions tightened.
“Most emerging economies have built reserves and have robust macroeconomic frameworks,” Ms Boone said.
The report said China’s recent action to boost growth should prevent a sharp slowing in its economy, but would delay the necessary reduction in indebtedness of its corporate sector.
The OECD expected jobs growth to remain strong in its largely rich country members.
With fiscal deficits now under control and low across most of Europe, the OECD recommended that countries take a long-term outlook, taking further steps to reduce debt burdens so that countries have more room for manoeuvre in a future downturn.