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OECD:贸易战危及全球经济

OECD:贸易战危及全球经济

英国《金融时报》 克里斯•贾尔斯 伦敦报道
2018.09.21 12:00
经合组织(OECD)周四表示,随着贸易放缓,美国与其贸易伙伴之间针锋相对的关税措施已经开始损害全球经济,并且将在明年造成更大的威胁。

在美中宣布数十年来最大范围的关税举措后数天,这家总部位于巴黎的国际组织在中期经济展望中表示,迄今为止,贸易紧张造成的影响是“温和”的。

但经合组织补充称,关税可能对全球增长产生更大的不利影响。该组织称,全球增长目前现在已经“趋缓”。

经合组织首席经济学家劳伦斯•布恩(Laurence Boone)表示:“看一看商品贸易增速,现在它已经比(国内生产总值)慢。出口订单差不多全线下降。”

经合组织预测,今年和明年世界经济将增长3.7%,比起本10年最初的几年,这是一个健康的增长率。但经合组织把今年和明年的增长预期相对于今年5月的预测分别下调0.1和0.2个百分点。

经合组织表示,大多数国家的经济预期都有所下调,部分原因是今年第一季度的疲弱,还有部分原因是贸易冲突和金融市场收紧的预期影响。

经合组织指出,特朗普政府威胁要从明年1月起对2000亿美元中国输美产品加征25%的关税,该组织补充称,如果对汽车征收这一关税税率,通胀有可能因此提高1%。

经合组织表示,美国于今年1月征收的关税导致3月至7月期间美国洗衣机价格上涨20%。该组织还指出,在截至7月的一年里,美国对华汽车出口下降40%。

布恩补充称,贸易争端对企业投资产生了寒蝉效应。“如果我们在英国做出退欧决定后看一看英国的情况,投资陷入了停滞。”她说,“这是体现贸易争端能够造成多大破坏的很好的例子。”

经合组织将英国今年与明年的增长预期均下调0.1个百分点,分别为较为缓慢的1.3%和1.2%。

经合组织补充称,欧洲最迫切的问题是避免英国退欧陷入两败俱伤的僵局。该组织称:“英国退欧是一大不确定性来源,非常关键的是达成协议,并确保(英国与欧盟)未来的关系保持尽可能地紧密。”

新兴市场中遭遇困难的国家似乎仅限于那些美元计价债务较高、经常账户赤字较大的国家。但经合组织表示,随着金融条件收紧,所有新兴经济体都需要保持警惕。

布恩表示:“大多数新兴经济体都充实了储备,并拥有稳健的宏观经济框架。”

经合组织的报告称,中国近期采取的促增长措施应该能够防止经济急剧放缓,但会推迟必要的削减企业债务行动。

经合组织还预计,在其主要由富国组成的成员国中,就业增长将保持强劲。

由于欧洲大多数国家的财政赤字已得到控制并处于较低水平,经合组织建议各国着眼于长期,采取进一步措施来减轻债务负担,以便在未来的低迷时期有更大回旋余地。

译者/徐行

以下为此文英文原文:Mounting trade conflict threatens world economy, OECD warns

By Chris Giles in London
Tit-for-tat tariffs between the US and its partners are already damaging the global economy and pose a greater threat next year as trade slows down, the OECD said on Thursday.

In its interim economic outlook, issued days after Washington and Beijing announced some of the most sweeping tariffs for decades, the Paris-based international organisation said that to date the effect of the trade tensions had been “mild”.

But it added that the tariffs risked becoming more detrimental to global growth, which the OECD said had now “plateaued”.

Laurence Boone, the OECD’s chief economist, said: “Look at goods trade growth, it is now slower than [gross domestic product growth]. Export order books have been coming down pretty much across the board.”

The forecasts expect the world economy to grow 3.7 per cent this year and next, a healthy rate compared with the early years of this decade. But the OECD has cut its growth expectation from its May forecasts by 0.1 percentage point in 2018 and 0.2 percentage points in 2019.  

Most countries’ economic forecasts have been marked down, the OECD said, partly as a result of weakness in the first quarter of this year and partly because of the expected impact of the trade conflicts and tightening financial markets.

The OECD noted the Trump administration’s threat to slap 25 per cent tariffs on $200bn of Chinese imports in January, adding that if such duties were imposed on cars, it could raise inflation by 1 per cent.

It said that US tariffs in January had already led to a 20 per cent increase in the US price of washing machines between March and July. It also noted that US car exports to China were down 40 per cent in the year to July.

Ms Boone added that the trade dispute had a chilling effect on corporate investment. “If we look at the UK since the Brexit decision, investment has stalled,” she said. “This is a good example of how damaging trade disputes can be.”

The OECD’s forecast for UK growth was downgraded by 0.1 percentage point both this year and next, leaving the projections showing a sluggish 1.3 per cent growth rate this year and 1.2 in 2019.

It added that the most burning issue in Europe was to avoid a damaging stand-off on the UK’s departure from the EU. “Brexit is a major source of uncertainty and it is vital that a deal is struck and the future relationship [between the UK and the EU] remains as close as possible,” the OECD said.

Emerging markets difficulties appeared confined to countries with high levels of dollar-denominated debt and large current account deficits. But the OECD said all emerging economies needed to be vigilant as financial conditions tightened.

“Most emerging economies have built reserves and have robust macroeconomic frameworks,” Ms Boone said.

The report said China’s recent action to boost growth should prevent a sharp slowing in its economy, but would delay the necessary reduction in indebtedness of its corporate sector.

The OECD expected jobs growth to remain strong in its largely rich country members.

With fiscal deficits now under control and low across most of Europe, the OECD recommended that countries take a long-term outlook, taking further steps to reduce debt burdens so that countries have more room for manoeuvre in a future downturn.

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